Long-stay home care clients mostly reside in private homes or retirement homes, and the type of residence may influence risk factors for long-term care placement. This multi-state analytic study uses RAI-Home Care and administrative data from the Hamilton Niagara Haldimand Brant Local Health Integration Network to model conceptualized states of risk at baseline through a 13-month follow-up period. Modifiable risk factors in these states were client loneliness or depressive symptoms, and caregiver distress.