Future projections

Many long-term care systems in economically developed countries are reliant on informal care. However, in the context of population ageing, there are concerns about the future supply of informal care. This article reports on projections of informal care receipt by older people with disabilities from spouses and (adult) children to 2032 in England. The projections show that the proportions of older people with disabilities who have a child will fall by 2032 and that the extent of informal care in future may be lower than previously estimated.

The Valuing People White Paper (Department of Health, 2001) requires services to secure a plan for all service-users with learning disabilities living with older carers and promises them and their families more choice and control over how and where they live. This paper examines the views of the older carers (aged over seventy) of sixty-two adults with a learning disability about planning for the future. Fifty-six took part in interviews in their own homes and six completed a questionnaire.

This paper outlines two challenges to community nurses as they work with unpaid carers. These reflect a changing culture in the way that healthcare will be delivered in the coming decade. The first of these challenges is a shift towards focusing on outcomes for both service users and adult carers. Outcomes evidence the impact a service has on a person's life. The second is the increasing focus on the concept of carers as partners in care. 

A key feature of population ageing in Europe and other more economically developed countries is the projected unprecedented rise in need for long-term care in the next two decades. There is, however, considerable uncertainty over the future supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children. The future of family care is particularly important in countries planning to reform their long-term care systems, as is the case in England.